Monday 30 April 2012

GBPCHF short - would you have traded this?

On Friday afternoon, we had a compelling case to trade this set-up short. We had a high test bar on the daily timeframe which rejected the yearly high and it also rejected the monthly R2 hidden level of resistance.

However, looking at Friday's close, it actually closed as a doji bar, which is not quite as good as a high test bar. So my first filter came into play. GBPCHF is not looking quite as good short. But what the REAL deal breaker for me was the fact we did not have a reversal (ie. double top or head and shoulders on the hourly timeframe). So, for those two reasons alone, that disuaded me from taking it short.

*If you want to improve your skills in reading price action intuitively, I seriously recommend reading: Reading Price Charts Bar by Bar: The Technical Analysis of Price Action for the Serious Trader (Wiley Trading) 

GBPCHF - daily - Doji


GBPCHF - daily -hourly (still NO REVERSAL here)

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9 comments:

  1. Nick D30 April 2012 at 08:19

    Rob, I did take the trade and am 40 pips in profit so far!

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    1. RobColville30 April 2012 at 12:06

      Fair enough - glad you're making money from it....but where was your stop? had you traded it as a conventional power pivot you would have not been triggered.

      Delete
    2. James B1 May 2012 at 05:16

      This comment has been removed by the author.

      Delete
  2. James B30 April 2012 at 09:57

    same i got in today as soon as the 60min formed a lower low, up about 20 pips so far, going to take partial profit at 2:1 at 1.4621.
    only thing that may get in the way for a short period is the first bounce of the new weekly pivot.

    Good find anyway Rob, keep up the smashing work!

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    Replies
    1. RobColville30 April 2012 at 12:06

      Fair enough - glad you're making money from it....but where was your stop? had you traded it as a conventional power pivot you would have not been triggered.

      Delete
    2. Nick D30 April 2012 at 12:09

      Hi Rob,

      where would your target/limit be for this one?

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    3. James B1 May 2012 at 05:17

      stop was at the top of day bar + spread, so 1.4800, put it at 1.4802 so its just above the round number.
      It's smashed straight through the new weekly pivot but bounced off the new monthly pivot. Should be interesting to see how this one runs.
      I'm gonna try not to fiddle with it as im just starting to convert to day bar action as i prefer the way you do it to be honest, makes sense. My brain still thinks like a 5 minute chart though! :)

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    4. James B4 May 2012 at 06:17

      seems like you where 100% right Rob,hail you, now it looks like its broken through that resistance line and has turned support

      Delete
  3. John Cook30 April 2012 at 11:57

    Only end of day for me. I did place order below doji but did not trigger. Tonight we now have a nice HTB on the daily so I'll adjust order accordingly.

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