GBPCHF short ready for the watchlist?

Ever since GBPCHF reached the 14755 level, which remains unbroken in over a year - it has been one which I have been stalking...and as they days have gone by, it just looks better and better for a short.But it is not quite ready yet, alas.

For the trade

If GBPCHF closes as a high test bar this evening (the formation seen in the last bar on screenshot below) off the level of resistance which has not been broken in over a year – probability will be to the downside.  The fact that it is bouncing off the monthly R2 level (a hidden level of resistance) is another clue to a potential move to the downside.

Against the trade

However, against the trade, we have the fact that the hourly timeframe does not give us a lower high (we have no idea whether the shorter term buyers/market are ‘singing from the same hymn sheet’ until we get clue like a lower high and thus a sign that momentum up into the level is starting to wane). 

GBPCHF

 This is where trading can sometimes be like two politicians arguing on a TV debate - the most convincing one may seem to the casual observer, the most resulting chain of events may be.

What do you think?