Is EURNZD lining up for a sell, finally?

It's high on the watchlist even though it's not quite 'cooked yet'.

I'm anticipating a potential trend continuation once price action gets to: 16218 as this level coincides with:



1: A Fib cluster -  level coinciding with the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement (taken from the last major swing high  (May to the swing low of August). The level also correlates with the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement (taken from the swing high of November 2011 to the swing low of August this year).

2. Fib extension 1.618, taken from 5th September - 1st October projects onto the 16218 level perfectly

So while the 'sell zone' has been identified and the direction is congruent with the over all trend, we just need to 'stalk' the trade until it gets  to that zone - then we can wait for our price action signal to sell.

The trick is not to get over excited in the meantime, and wait dogmatically for our signal. If we get a high test or doji - or a siognal on the hourly that the tide is turning then great - we can trade it. If we do not - we don't.

Forex Trading Floors Networking

Our friends at Forex Trading Floors invite you to meet them for some trading and networking on the 18th September at their state of the art floors in Brentwood, Essex. 

Such events are always encouraged especially as it can be rather isolating trading at home alone. Plus, they really do have great facilities for you to enjoy. I was there only last week!

The trading floors will be open all day from 7am till 5pm so this is your chance to trade alongside some new faces. Feel free to come at any time with lunch being served at around 1. 

If you would like to attend please RSVP: info@forextradingfloors.co.uk

Address:  

Forex Trading Floors Ltd
Craven Gate
Lorne Road
Warley
Brentwood

September 10th: Forex Market Analysis

Here is some market analysis, rants and ravings about the current climate and potential opportunities in the market forthcoming. Fingers and toes crossed September yields more market action than August!

Awesome Trader Film: 'Floored'

If you have ever wondered how fortunes were made and lost in the pitts of Chicargo yesteryear then look no further. The docu-film, 'Floored', gives a full and frank insight into how both seasoned professionals and complete and utter punters were to jostle side by side in their quest to get the day's 'hot trade' back in the 80s and 90s.

What is curious however is that many pitt traders who were on top of their game twenty short years ago are really struggling with now having to do business with their newly found nemesis - the personal computer.
Enjoy!

Keep 6th September Free for Your Diary

A personal friend of mine, who is launching The Forex Trading Floors,  which are based in Brentwood, Essex, is holding his first opening evening on 6th September, from 7pm - 10pm.

It will be a great opportunity to network to have a look around their purpose built trading floors which are being launched with the aim of making the trading environment accessible to everyone - not least, network amongst likeminded people and grow your contacts list.


I will be going - hope to see you there too!

For more information, click here

Long GBPCHF, Short EURGBP - be careful not to double up....

Hey Traders,

Yesterday I presented an enthusiastic argument for GBPCHF long based of a variety of factors, but the irony was that when it came to placing the trade yesterday...I actually went short on EURGBP instead.
Even though it may seem like an entirely different currency pair at surface value, the fact of the matter is that trading EURGBP short is pretty much the same trade as GBPCHF long. Just in the same way that Swissy and Euro are negatively correlated.

The EURGB short:-

Trading an inside bar breakout (short) which has rejected a horizontal level @7956 in addition to the previously tested 50ema. The lower high on the hourly is encouraging too, signalling confirmation from the shorter term sentiment. Also the 50 fibonacci retracement from the previous swing high (correlating with the level is encouraging) in addition to the interaction with a well-respected trendline.

You may notice that the argument for the EURGBP short was exactly the same (but inverse) of the GBPCHF long trade from the blog posted yesterday...

Beware of this as sometimes it's very easy to be caught out by over exposing yourself to any one particular move. Imagine had you traded both GBPCHF long and EURGBP short - then you've doubled up your exposure to any one particular outcome...

Time to buy GBPCHF?

Looking at GBPCHF we have a wonder technical set-up potentially aligning itself for tonight. While on the daily, cyclicity is making higher highs and higher lows in a strong upward trend off the back of the weakening Swiss Franc (which has been declining in strength against GBP since the Swiss National Bank’s intervention of September last year), we have a retest of a level of previously broken resistance – as support. This is correlating wonderfully with yet another test of the previously respected 50 ema and the formation of a double bottom on the hourly timeframe. 

Daily:

 

 Hourly:

 So, in favour we have:

1. Cyclicty

2. Higher highs and higher lows

3 Continuing respect for the 50 ema

4.A previously broken level of resistance as support

5. A reversal on the hourly timeframe.

6. It’s a 50% fibonacci retracement of the previous swing low to swing high!

The odds are stacked in favour of a long – without a doubt. 

Target? I’ll leave this one up to you. What kind of person are you?

We can trade it as an inside bar break (long). If you are a high probability, low(er) reward kind of chap or chapess – then I’d recommend taking profit at the previous swing high’s high (circa: 15432. If are happier with a lower probability in exchange for a higher reward then I recommend the technical level of 15754 which correlated with a Fibonacci extension of 2.00.