Blog Migrating over to new site

Dear All,

Just a quick post to let you know that all of my future posts, articles, rants and raves will be on the following website:

http://www.thelazytrader.com

See you there!

Could NZDCAD be January's big short?

As the cross pair NZDCAD teeters on a multi-year high unbroken since 2008, this could present bounce traders with a golden opportunity to sell for the long term.

Not only is the resistance level synonymous with supply sentiment, as investors who are buying the Kiwi and selling the Canadian Dollar will inevitably want to realise profits and exit their position based on the logic that the bounce is 70% more likely than the break, but  other technical factors line up to support our decision to sell.

We also have an overlap of two Fibonacci extensions (1.272 and the 2.0 Fibonacci extension levels), which has given us a ‘Fibonacci extension cluster. We also have RSI divergence, giving us the extra clue that the strength between buyers and sellers is starting to tilt in favour of the bears.

Click here to continue reading

Trade idea: Long on horse meat anyone?

While UK Supermarket giant, Tesco, yesterday squirmed amid shock revelations that its beef burgers were contaminated with horse meat (of all things!), it’s share price took a tumble, after gapping down. However, it later recovered to unveil a rather interesting price action set up.

As we trade what we see off the chart, regardless of how vulgar the prospect of horse meat is in your burger – the current technical set-up could very well be of interest to you...but only if you trade UK stocks.

In favour of a long of the break of yesterday’s high:

Bullish pin bar reversal

The previous swing high acting as support

Rejecting a previously tested 20ema (blue line)

Rejecting a trendline (3^rd test)

Good momentum driving cyclicity; higher swing highs and higher lows

A Fibonacci cluster: 0.382 rejection and 0.618 over lapping

Forex Trading Gangnam Style

This is so jokes!!

7 Reasons why I'm going to sell CADCHF on Monday

Here we go - 7 reasons why CADCHF looks nice for a sell.

1. Friday’s bearish pin bar reversal off the 9396 level 

2. It is testing the 0.618 Fibonacci Retracement (which overlaps near perfectly to the 9396 level (taken from the swing high of the 10^th December to the most recent swing low of the 28^th December). 

3. The 9396 level corresponds also with the 0.386 Fibonacci Retracement level (taken from the swing high of the 7^th September to the most recent swing low of the 28^th December) 

4. The 0.50 Fibonacci Retracement level too overlaps with the level when drawn from the swing high of 7^th November to the December swing low. 

5. An overlap of three Fibonacci Retracement levels on our horizontal level is a rare treat known as a ‘Fibonacci Cluster’.

6.   As the close on Friday for USDCHF was a high test bar off a the previously tested 50ema (looking bearish)...

7... while the USDCAD gives the appearance of being infinitely more range-bound – this gives us an extra clue that The Swiss Franc stands a far greater change of strengthening against the US Dollar than the US Dollar has of weakening against the Canadian Dollar so that corresponds nicely with our interpretation of the chart for a CADCHF sell.

I shall trade this by placing a sell entry and the break of Friday’s low (minus the spread) with our stoploss above Friday’s high (plus spread) with a target just in advance of the December swing low – for a higher probability/lower reward outcome. 

Gold long, anyone?

Gold. It's something apparently we should keep buying in this present age of fiat currencies but as technical traders we simply trade what we see - not what we think...with gay abandon!

We have a good technical set-up for a long: a low test bar off a trendline bounce and a technical level at 1639 which also correlates with seasonality (gold traditionally very bullish this time of year) and a 0.618 Fibonacci retracement. To top it all, we also have a reversal pattern on the hourly, so a good heads up that the shorter term buyers and sellers are 'playing ball' with the higher timeframe pundits.