Gold long, anyone?

Gold. It's something apparently we should keep buying in this present age of fiat currencies but as technical traders we simply trade what we see - not what we think...with gay abandon!

We have a good technical set-up for a long: a low test bar off a trendline bounce and a technical level at 1639 which also correlates with seasonality (gold traditionally very bullish this time of year) and a 0.618 Fibonacci retracement. To top it all, we also have a reversal pattern on the hourly, so a good heads up that the shorter term buyers and sellers are 'playing ball' with the higher timeframe pundits.

Is SGDJPY finally ready to tilt south?

While our previous trade idea: NZDJPY thankfully invalidated itself (on the 7^th Dec) before we entered the trade, the SGDJPY, in our opinion, is looking good for a long-term sell – even if it is going against the seasonality....after all, nothing works the whole time and seasonality too has proven that.

Damned if we use the seasonals as a reason not to get into a trade and it goes in our favour – damned if we use it and it supports a trade decision which goes against us. 

Either way, Wednesday’s bearish pin bar reversal on the daily of SGDJPY rejecting the 69.40 level has not seen this price extremity since May 2010, where it last met and rejected sharply, signifying this is a strong zone of supply where bears will be creeping back into the market. Price action has not been above this level since 2008 so technically we can call it a ‘hard level’.

So, we took the break of Wednesday’s low with a stoploss above the high. The reward to risk makes sense to, with a target at 64.47 – three quarters to the bottom of the range. 

Trading the bounce short in this instance will be more lucrative than trading the breakout long.

Is NZDJPY finally ready to short?

So today is the day I’ve been waiting for...for quite some time! Regardless of the onset of the Santa Claus rally and that old temptress, NZDJPY has reared its head against a rather immense level of resistance, just shy of the 69.00 level. This level has remained intact for two years.

As the bounce is 70% more likely than the breakout, and the reward/risk profile infinitely more....well, infinite, it makes sense to short this bad boy before the such an opportunity – one we have been waiting for since March this year – is lost forever. 

We are blessed with a doji bar (reflecting indecision at the top which demonstrates to us that the balance of power between buyers and sellers in the market is tilting in favour of the bears. We also have divergence (for those of you who bother to look at such things)...and, the makings of a head and shoulders formation on the hourly timeframe. 

While I would prefer a high test at such a level, I shall place my order below Friday’s low, safe in the knowledge that I will only be filled if the neckline of the head and shoulders on the hourly is broken...and, thus, is confirmed as a reversal pattern perpetuating a move on the higher timeframes.

The reward to risk on this trade is epic, with a target at: 60.83 – giving it a reward/risk of: 16:1 risking 1%...or 32:2 (risking 2%)

 Above: NZDJPY (on the Daily)

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No need to discriminate - it's just a currency!

It's time we kick the discrimination out of currency trading once and for all!

Just because a currency pair is "different" and  not a major or a minor, it does not mean its completely defunct of yielding highly lucrative opportunities!

Throughout my time mentoring private investors for the past three years, I have noticed a common leaning towards the majors and minors where these pairs are traded almost exclusively of the higher timeframes, often at the expense of the lost opportunities on the more exotic pairs.

I cannot remember the last time I traded a minor or a major currency pair for that matter. The crosses and more exotic pairs are a lot more seductive for me in my end of day campaigns to pillage pips from the markets.

Mention GBPNOK to me my back in 2008 and I would ask whether that pair was even legal, yet alone tradable. However, this month it’s gains represent the lion’s share of this month’s profits.

How the hell did that happen?

I simply traded it the same way as I would any other darn currency pair! I do not discriminate against currencies (these days). I operate an ‘equal opportunities for all’ policy. Yes, no matter what the pair is, I give it the same opportunity to prove to me that they are giving me a bonafide technical opportunity to milk. 

In the case of GBPNOK, I had a long order placed to catch the break of Friday’s high test bar (19^th October) which intersected with the soft 90401 level.

Armed with the logic that if the high of this high test bar was breached, it would demonstrate to the world at large that the bears/sellers which were once there defending this high test bar’s high would no longer be there. I decided to place the order, it triggered on the 19^th and am at a gain just shy of 4%. Monday was a smash day and it was traded the same way as if this price action set-up was on the AUDNZD, GBPCHF or the Mexican Peso!

 Also, take a look at USDNOK. On the 18^th October - there was a classic low test bar on the 56104 level which is a very strong level to buy – correlated with a reversal on the hourly. What’s not to like about that? The currency may be obscure but it still behaves the same way as any other currency.

In short, I highly recommend to trade all currencies available to you while not over exposing yourself because it is just a chart, nothing more, nothing less. If you trade exclusively end of day and you are that little bit more adventurous and increase the number of currencies which you trade while keeping your strategy constant then you could very well find that it is the more obscure currency pairs which bring home the bacon (or the Halal lamb if you’re not a lover of pork).

Trading results - why be so cagey?

It has always surprised me how people get so defensive over their trading results.

Surely if you are doing well, naturally you want to talk about them. If you are doing badly, then it is instinctive to want to brush vast percentage losses to one side.I guess it's burrying one's head in the sand.

I remember a conversation with a trader who had been trading for over ten years and he engaged me with a story on how a potential investor asked to see his results and, incandescent with rage, he proclaimed that he did not have to show his results to anyone.

I wondered why this was. Surely, he would have to if people in their right mind were to invest?

Here are my trading results. They may be consistant but are nothing to go shouting about - but then, even if they were, I would not be shouting about them. I would simply show them to people who ask for them. It's the least I can do for people who want to use my services. It's the least I can do for them...

Is EURNZD lining up for a sell, finally?

It's high on the watchlist even though it's not quite 'cooked yet'.

I'm anticipating a potential trend continuation once price action gets to: 16218 as this level coincides with:



1: A Fib cluster -  level coinciding with the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement (taken from the last major swing high  (May to the swing low of August). The level also correlates with the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement (taken from the swing high of November 2011 to the swing low of August this year).

2. Fib extension 1.618, taken from 5th September - 1st October projects onto the 16218 level perfectly

So while the 'sell zone' has been identified and the direction is congruent with the over all trend, we just need to 'stalk' the trade until it gets  to that zone - then we can wait for our price action signal to sell.

The trick is not to get over excited in the meantime, and wait dogmatically for our signal. If we get a high test or doji - or a siognal on the hourly that the tide is turning then great - we can trade it. If we do not - we don't.